1/27/08

Pop! Goes RE Bubble

Inflation-adjusted chart concerning the recent boom in housing valuations in the US by economist Robert J. Shiller: We can see that while prices have fluctuated over the past 116 years, the rise in prices since 1997 is not only steep, but unprecedented. While it is possible that home prices will continue to rise or even remain stagnant, there is high probability of substantial and steady home price declines extending over many years to come. If the current move was to repeat the cycle of its recent predecessors, we'd see an approaching top and an ensuing move down towards the lows of the last cycle lows. This would bring us down back from whence we came (~ at 116 on Shiller's chart). Note here that stock market bubbles rarely meet with such a definitive end.

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