1/31/08

Fora

I’m going to steal some of James Dalton’s ideas on time frames, mostly because his seem to fit nicely, and from anecdotal experience, it seems to hold true. Five time frames exist, grey areas obviously exist, but I find it’s a good starting point when dissecting the charts. Scalper, Day Trader, Short-Term Traders, Intermediate Traders, and Long-term Traders are the five main divisions.

Scalper


The scalper lives by the minute hand, continually buying and selling in order to take advantage of fleeting discrepancies in order flow. Scalpers may make as many as several hundred trades a day, comprising thousands of contracts. Scalpers rely on intuition. They buy and sell from all timeframes, and their ability to respond to the immediate needs of the marketplace provides essential liquidity. This timeframe is utterly detached from longer-term economic trends, for obvious reasons. For these guys, its all about reading order flow.

Day Trader


The day trader enters the market with no position and goes home the same way. Day traders process news announcements, reflect on technical analysis, and read order flow in order to make trading decisions. They also have to deal with the other timeframes buying and selling, margins calls, major economic news, even seemingly harmless speeches by Fed insiders (hello Greenspan effect!). Anyone who believes the markets are rational should spend a day trying to digest and react to the landslide on conflicting data day traders must wade through to make a decision.

Short-Term Trader


Short-term traders often hold trades longer than a day, but usually not longer than three to five days (a trading week). Short-term traders usually have to be much more aware of economic trends, and monitoring important junctions that exist, such as trend lines, new highs and lows, etc. They’re always on the look out for break outs, either to fade (which means to bet against the movement continuing), or get on board the momentum.

Intermediate Trader (or investor?)

The difference between intermediate traders and short-term traders is simply they operate on a longer term view. Rather then thinking of a set timeframe, Intermediate Traders (often referred to colloquially as “swing traders”) are usually more focused on the time the market spending bracketing, rather then an actual set time piece of a month or 3 months. They usually attempt to buy at the bottom of a bracketing market, hoping to sell at the top, or vice versa. They may also, like the other timeframes, pile aboard powerful break outs or short when the market tanks. Swing traders usually process a lot more fundamental information then both Short-Term and Day Traders, because the sheer amount of different technical ideas can make it difficult to judge which is important in the context.

Long-Term Investor

Long-term investors are far more attatched to the securities they own. They have a stronger tendency to buy securities and put them away for some time, with holding periods from months up to several years. When they are active, they deal with very large positions that are very visible to all participants in the market. Shorter term participants that wish to stay solvent understand to either get on board or move out of the way when the long-term investors decide to take a position.

Note that when you see a major, powerful move in the markets or a stock, its almost always all the timeframes moving in unison. Like the food chain, the longer timeframe is the dominate force over the smaller one, taking on an alpha like role. Short-term traders, no matter how stubborn, will always get run over by the long-term investors, through the sheer weight of the contracts/stock quantity they use when entering the market..."

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5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Yorgos...have you changed your ST,MT,or LT view on LDK? I know from your earlier posts that you're quite sanguine on the prospects for this firm for 2008. I assume that you don't day trade?

Thanks.

David

Yorgos Voyiatzis said...

To assert that I have never changed my views on investments already made would be sophomoric and pretentious. I can assure you, David, that I have changed my mind many a time on many an equity very shortly after buying into it. But I have NEVER based my decision to close any such position based upon market swings. Almost always, I refrain from watching trading activity on any of the many positions I hold. I pay close attention to the underlying fundamentals, though, and aim for the distant horizon. So long as fundamentals remain sound, I stay put. Yes, I am a long-term investor and will expire as one. Patience is my best friend, perhaps my only beloved.

My view on LDK Solar has not changed a bit. Conversely, as time unfolds my optimism has grown stronger, perhaps even more intense, for my holding position has grown larger.

Take care...

Anonymous said...

Yorgos..."have you" is a question, not an assertion, neither inferring pretense nor sophomoric behavior. Your interpretation of my mindset would only be accurate if I were a gloating short seller of LDK.

I'm long LDK at an average of $44 per share. I purchased more yesterday at $29 on the assumption that the data being dispursed by the company is accurate, and that the market is over-reacting to short-term problems (ie. winter storms in China).

I always question and re-question the thesis of my investment decisions. Patience is certainly a virtue for all equity holders in emerging technologies, but blind faith can be quite costly...especially when the market (inefficient as it may be) is screaming that your (and my) belief in LDK over the short to mid-term, at least, is erroneous.

I asked you your thoughts on LDK, because you were so vociferous and adamant about LDK being your personal pick for 2008, which is NOT a long-term prediction in my book!

Sorry to have ruffled your sensitive feathers. Perhaps a public blog is not the appropriate forum to present your personal thoughts, especially when any idiot with access to Google searching can trip over it and engage you with silly questions.

David

Yorgos Voyiatzis said...

LDK remains my top pick for 2008, as I expect it to reach its fair market valuation around early 2010, if not sooner. At its current fundamentals it is a steal; a veritable diamond in the rough. By that I mean that LDK currently proffers value that, in my estimates, is hard to find elsewhere within or without its sector. Most "investors" spend lots of time trying to do something they cannot do well: namely, forecasting. As a value investor, I always try to incorporate a given company's growth potentiality onto my model of analysis. For instance, if I choose to buy into something I would pay for it by leaving its growth estimates/forecasts out of the equation. This is why it is indispensable I unearth the "growth number": so I can deduct it. All that matters to me is the "now," not the "what if." I am only human and I do not claim supra-natural capacities. But being able to discern the "now" from the "what if" is what sets individuals apart. The difference between the value I derive from my investment's current fundamentals sans its growth potentiality is my margin of safety. This, in a nutshell, is how I protect my capital; not by applying protective stops and all that jazz. I protect my capital by buying something at a discount. If you can buy something that's worth $1,000.00 for $600.00, then you have made out like a bandit. Now, this doesn't mean that your purchase will come into its fair market valuation overnight. It may take a period of time; it usually does. So what? If you cannot afford to buy something and wait for it to bear fruit, then you should be doing something other than planting seeds, for you are putting your farml at risk. If you get your kicks by day-trading or some other type of trigger-happy fetish, then I am sorry but I cannot offer you further advice: same planet, different universe. The golden rule for a long term investor is to protect his capital, not make spreads. If I can average a 20% per annum return on my capital year over year I am preserving it and I am content. I seek little else. Now if you want to double and treble your capital in stocks, good luck to you, my best wishes. Just remember that it is not the intensity of high returns but the duration of the intensity of high returns that defines successful traders. And there is not one who can claim the title; there never will be. Traders come and go, investors forever remain. Due diligence pays off; crunch the numbers and never rely on other people's calculations. It all is mere arithmetic, after all...

Anonymous said...

Yorgos...I do get a kick out of your erudition, though your verbosity tends to undermine the clarity of your point of view. I'm a student of succinct articulation.

I don't subscribe to the popular notion of calculating the PEG ratio of a company, being the P/E ratio divided by its Y over Y earnings growth rate. After all, a projected growth rate is a hope and a wish, not a finite number. Crunching your own numbers is a fantasy pursued by the delusional individual investor, as it postulates the numbers crunched represent an auditable reality. If the secret of Midas were "mere arithmetic", than the accountants would control the world's riches, as opposed to being relegated to the task of counting those riches for their masters.

I have the means to both invest and trade, and the luxury of time to both wrestle with the here-and-now while pondering the "what ifs" of the future.

I have the discipline to cut my loses, and the experience to know that some stocks (and industries) will never rise from the ashes of Wall Street's creative destruction.

My personal Achilles heels, given my bipedal nature, is my tendency to be right about an investment or economic thesis, but early in my deployment of resources; matched against my inability to sit on a winner, dig in my sore heels, and ride, and ride, and ride. But, I do believe that the cognizance of one's weaknesses is the first step toward resolution.

I do enjoy the cultural and intellectual eclecticism of your blog, though it reminds me of the limitations of my mono-linguistic cage. How many languages do you speak/read/write?

David