12/31/07

EUR/USD: Good Entry Point


Things look very sanguine for the euro here. At least for the first quarter of 2008 the euro should perform very well and, from the looks of this lovely cup & handle chart, should breach $1.50 very soon. I would make this my first play for the new year and go long trading it expecting $1.49 by January's end. Almost a year ago today the euro displaced the US dollar as the world’s pre-eminent currency in international bond markets, having outstripped the dollar-denominated market for the second year in a row. Yesterday we learn that the dollar's share of known official reserves is falling precipitously whereas the euro's status in these same reserves is gaining dramatically. Very interesting, these times, for the greenback. The euro is a buy with a target price of $1.49. Should it breach $1.49 by January's end, which is highly likely at this pace, I'd buy even more for a $1.55 target price by late spring. Concurrently, I'd also be stocking up gold via GLD, IAU, or DGL. Gold should break $900.00 before oil violates the dreaded $100.00 mark. The theme here is that, 1) the American dollar will continue its slump, 2) oil will steadily climb to $110.00 by summertime, and 3) gold should break one thousand by the end of 2008. Best way to play oil here is through PBR, CEO, SSL, and XLE. Lastly, do not discount how energy-alternate sources, especially solar, semiconductors, electrical components and agriculture react to rising oil prices: hint: not inversely. Hence, PBW, WFR, STP, and LDK are also good plays here; even more so than the oil players. To see major fireworks on your portfolio come January, 2009, you'd have to buy 2 shares of alternate energy players for every 1 oil equity you acquire (namely, 100 XLE, 200 PBW, 100 CEO, 200 LDK, etc). Have a prosperous 2008!

No comments: